2024 Election Forecast 538. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast.
538’s galen druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020. Data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here.